Onset of our limpet mine

In wars of yore, a deadly weapon against ships was the limpet mine, which would be deployed by elite commandos. They would swim under a hull and deploy a magnetised explosive charge that would clang onto the maritime metal, clinging on like a malevolent barnacle until the inevitable 'ka-boom'.

These last couple of days, our own 11-month-old limpet mine has been attaching itself to us with a ferocious obstinacy. He's been stuck at home with us (or both of his grandmothers, who rode to the rescue) after he was felled by a nasty virus and had to struggle with a scarily persistent fever. Since then, whenever awake, the little fella can't seem to go 10 minutes on his own before he'll be scuttling along with many a tearful peep, seeking an adult embrace. Not that he used to be stand-offish, but he was never so needy till now, even in previous bouts with illness.

At work, Pa's been preoccupied with how the economic crisis has affected country after country, so the little fella's behaviour has reminded him of the way some populations react. When all is well and the economy is humming along merrily, these folks want their government to leave them well alone so they can go about their own business. But when a financial contagion strikes, they go all limpet-miney and insist on a powerful saving hug from Big Brother, demanding bail-outs, stimulus packages and what have you.

Of course, we know that a limpet mine is so designed that failing to break its grim embrace will be followed in short order by a massive explosion and a speedy one-way visit to the bottom of the sea. Similarly, expecting the government to be an all-powerful life preserver - somehow counteracting problems brought on by unwise economic activity, business foolishness and so forth - can only end in tears. A culture of dependency is swiftly bred, and fiscal irresponsibility could easily take hold.

In our case, Sonny's fever broke yesterday and a fierce rash surfaced in its wake. Seems he had either measles or what is called 'false measles', which may linger for anything from three to seven days. Presumably he can be forgiven for being especially needy - so he's been allowed more than his usual quota of hugs. But once he's well on the road to recovery, the pampering will cease. Which, hopefully, is what will happen with the world's own embrace of big-government rescues.

Baby Obama's growing pains

The administration of the new President of the United States, Barack Obama, is poised to hit the two-month mark this week.

A new presidency is very much like a new baby: Everyone is waiting to see if it possesses all the right functioning parts and will tickle it to see how it reacts, trying to work out how clever it's going to be. And of course, early on, any hard-and-fast conclusions would probably be premature.

Still, Obama seems to be making the right moves. A big economic stimulus package has been pushed through and a diplomatic offensive has been launched, with many a hint that a more inclusive, flexible and multilateral approach will be undertaken. To stick with our infant analogy, Baby Obama has a good, clear voice, isn't shying away when made to take his medicine and isn't thrashing about kicking other folks too viciously.

Yet there will inevitably come a time (say, when a nasty stinging gnat flies too close) when the new baby will need to warn it off or, if need be, strike accurately and swiftly. At the moment, Obama's mouthpiece, Hillary Clinton, has issued the usual pro forma warnings for North Korea to desist from a suspected missile test. But suppose Iran refuses to play ball and is seen as coming closer to acquiring nuclear arms. Or the Russians try to assert themselves. We will then see how forcefully and how subtly the Americans will rally allies, marshal their forces and otherwise behave as the sole superpower must.

Then, of course, there's still Afghanistan and Pakistan. The situation, in some ways, is dire - yet heartening too. Some babies, they say, are born old (and if not wise, at least acute), and Obama seems to be approaching this festering problem with maturity and an understanding of its complexity. It is increasingly clear that battling the Taleban can best be understood as peeling off those forces that can be accommodated and isolating the fanatic elements that insist on exporting violence. Luckily, a leaf can be taken from the book of the previous inhabitant of the presidential crib: Baby Bush, who was forced to grow up pretty quick amidst the threat of terror. In Iraq, the once ideologically naive Bush ended up endorsing a strategy of accommodation with multiple armed factions, so that the hard core of the local al-Qaeda was exposed and then bloodied.

Something like that will now be pursued in Afghanistan, along with a surge of fresh troops. We'll have to see if the infusion of new vitamins will boost Baby Obama's defences, so that the rest of the world will be clapping along with his happy gurglings in a year or so.

Precocious little thing, though...

India the latest weak spot for world's terrorists

Amidst the chaos in Mumbai, as the military tries to mop up the last of the terrorists who launched outrageous attacks that have killed over 120 people, one thing is showing up clearly: The world's terrorists have found the latest weakness to exploit. Awfully sorry, that's you, India.

The general philosophy of all recent terrorist attacks, shorn of local variation, is basically this: We'll kill as many people as possible, preferably foreigners, to send the message that the corrupt West must be rejected and America condemned. But a philosophy is one thing. Execution is something else altogether: When a country's security establishment cracks down hard, it is actually very difficult for militants to ply their murderous trade.

The United States, despite being the heart of darkness as far as these Islamo-fascists are concerned, has been hard to penetrate after the stunning September 11 2001 attacks in New York and Washington. The Americans revamped their entire security architecture and hasn't been struck since.

Then came Europe, where Madrid in 2004 and Britain in 2005 saw co-ordinated bombings. Again, the security and intelligence forces, put on notice, have been able to disrupt attempts at large-scale attacks.

On the other side of the world, Indonesia shuddered again and again as tourist paradise Bali (2002 and 2005) and Jakarta, the capital, (2003) were targeted. But the country learned. Safety measures have been boosted extensively at potential targets and, though there are still nests of militants, major terrorist successes have been averted.

Now, we have India. In these things, patterns cannot be set aside as just coincidences. In just recent months, there has been a series of horrific attacks in different cities, including in Jaipur (63 killed in May), Ahmedabad (45 in July), New Delhi (18 dead in September) and now - most stunningly - the Mumbai outrage. In India's commercial and entertainment capital, some 10 sites were targeted for infantry assaults. Attackers slipped in by boat and, two days on, there are still foreigners trapped in two luxury hotels as terrorists fight army commandos.

As each region in turn has convulsed from terrorist flare-ups, local extremists may have been the tip of the spear. But there can surely be no doubt that militant masterminds from abroad extended assistance, planning help, funds and perhaps manpower. The "global terror network" can be conceived of as a mass of interconnected tentacles: Once a weakness is found anywhere, resources and succour are poured in to exploit it. When a tentacle is cut off or weakened by government responses, the probing continues elsewhere for a weakness.

India, reeling from so many atrocities in succession, will eventually get a grip on the security situation. But the tentacle will withdraw, and somewhere else, a tentacle will lash out. Where this next place will be, only time and sudden tragedy will tell.

Obama should be nasty and nice

There are still a few days to go before the new US president is decided by popular vote, but there's little doubt now that Barack Obama will become America's first black leader. Youthful and untested, he is less impressive for what he has shown himself able to achieve than for how his oratory and life story have captured the yearnings of his nation - and beyond. Now, he needs to take a leaf from the book of anyone with a young child (and, reassuringly, he's a daddy too, of course).

We're referring here to how a parent should not typically either be thoroughly vicious or entirely kind to one's progeny. Too nasty, and the child can become confused, hurt and rebellious; too nice and he'll walk all over you. Though Sonny is only a week into his seventh month, we are already trying to set boundaries to go along with the coddling. Obama, then, should play both good and bad cop pretty much straight away. Here are two obvious areas in which this strategy would play out.

International affairs: Obama should follow through with what he has promised and initiate contacts with a range of people who have been in the bad books of the Bush administration. He has been campaigning on a platform of change and much of the world has bought into the mantra. Iran, Libya, Syria, North Korea - they could all be reached out to: Not by a presidential pow-wow or photo-op, but at some meaningful level through the State Department. The new president should also signal lound and clear that the US would rather initiate action through multilateral groupings than forge its own lonely path.

At the same time, however, Obama needs to make it clear that the US is not going to roll over and play weakling. The best way to do that is to launch a hefty blow at some terrorist objective. He need not publicly acknowledge the move - the hapless John McCain was at least right to say that you don't tell the bad guys your game plan - but nonetheless the message of resolve will be conveyed to those who will have no trouble understanding it. One place that's ripe for such an action might be the Iraq-Iran border, through which succour for militants flows unhindered. A well-aimed strike - not just a couple of fire-and-forget missiles - would put everyone on notice.

The economy: Obama is going to raise taxes. That's a given, though he'll make sure that the majority of voters conspicuously escape the pinch. He's probably also going to increase spending on various social programmes and push for some form of universal health care. What he needs to do is make some bold gestures that would show that he's not the enemy of economic innovation and entrepreneurship that his political enemies make him out to be. His choice of Treasury Secretary would be one way to make a substantial stand: Someone like Warren Buffett would reassure the markets, though choosing a big-name Fortune 500 CEO (rather than some think-tank wonk) might also do the trick. Ideally, this person would be a Republican and someone that Obama conspicuously backs up, so that he doesn't end up a mere token figure bereft of true policy-making heft.

This is especially important since it is far from obvious that the global economic crisis has run its course. A steady, pragmatic hand on the tiller will be critical - one that will fairly deal out economic pain to all, if necessary, without playing favourites. The performance of the US economy will affect the rest of the world, so missteps will be painfully magnified globally: Obamania will quickly die down if protectionism, for instance, spreads unchecked.

Apart from these two areas, the 'nasty and nice' principle should also apply as the new president tackles immigration, education and the restructuring of the country's social safety net - all of these are potentially divisive topics where there is no obvious national consensus. Chances are he's going to have hefty majorities in Congress friendly to his agenda: This will help speed things along, but will also make it tempting to give in to partisan leanings when crafting legislation. He'll have to curb some of the inevitable excesses - and will earn respect (along with howls of complaint from his own party) if he does so.

'Nasty and nice' has to apply across the board if it's to apply at all.

Impossible advice for McCain

There's still a month to go before the United States presidential election, but we'll stick our necks out and say that there's now no way John McCain, the Republican, can beat Democrat BarackObama. Was there any way he could have held on to a fighting chance? Not really - not any more than you could, for example, train a five-and-a-half month-old baby how to hula-hoop. In other words, one would have to be able to break the rules of time and logic. Get past that minor hurdle, and here's how McCain could pull off a stunning upset:

1) Get younger. Here's a big problem for the man right now: He's 72. And he looks it, through no fault of his own; there's also the baggage of cancer as well as injuries dating back to when he was shot down as a fighter pilot and brutalised by the North Vietnamese. In any election, being portrayed as a doddering old codger would be a liability. But given the scale of the challenges facing the next US President, from the economy to international security, voters are looking for someone with especially enormous energy reserves, perhaps even more than an edge in experience. And it just so happens McCain is facing 47-year-old Obama, who is the personification of youthful promise. It's a perfect storm of defects.

2) Unchoose Palin. It was a good idea at the time when Sarah Palin, the fresh-faced governor of Alaska was unleashed upon an unsuspecting world. There was an uptick in the polls and her selection as McCain's running mate showcased the boldness and unconventional thinking that he was trying to make part of his political brand. But since then, the world economy has been exposed as precariously teetering on the brink of disaster. At the same time, Palin has been exposed as an ignoramus lacking in gravitas - just when a safe pair of hands (think Joe Biden, Obama's massively experienced pick) seems to become vital. Every time McCain deploys his trademark 'There's no time for on-the-job training' jab against Obama, it whacks Palin too (with McCain's age giving it extra force).

3) Postpone the election. They say a week is a long time in politics, which is certainly true when we consider how dramatically the 'Palin bounce' became a punctured tire. But momentum is also important in politics, and right now, it's Obama who is coming across as a juggernaut. The key swing states that will decide the election are all trending his way and McCain's performance in the second presidential debate didn't throw up enough of a roadblock. Time can reveal weaknesses in Obama's armour, which is still relatively untested. But with just weeks left, it's increasingly unlikely that another Pastor Wright flap is going to surface. Also, by the time the economy stabilises (or people become used to the prospect of a severe downturn), which would rob the atmosphere of some of the visceral anger that is driving voters into Obama's corner, the election will be long over.

4) Replace Obama. This year's Democratic hopeful just happens to be the perfect poster boy for the times: His charisma, inspiring life story and ethnicity dramatically resonate with the chords of hope and sea change that voters are looking for. You could almost believe that someone built him, piece by character piece, as the ideal candidate for 2008. Almost anyone would be easier to beat: Compared to him, Hillary Clinton would be a godsend. She has a ton of baggage, would be a very unconvincing 'change agent' (wasn't she meddling in her husband's presidential musings way back when?) and doesn't have the gift for soaring rhetoric that he is blessed with.

5) Get half of the US to secede. Despite all the preceding factors militating against McCain, most of the country - geographically speaking - is actually still going to vote for McCain come election day. That is because great swathes of the nation, in the south and in middle America, are so conservative they would probably vote for a circus elephant if it was the official Republican candidate. The notorious Red states vs Blue states divide continues to hold true, so that the heartland could be effectively broken off and delivered to McCain to govern. That's fantasy, of course. But anyone who thinks McCain still has a hope of upsetting Obama is trading in wish-fulfilment anyway.

Najib Razak might just have to seize his chance

There are things that we are usually quite happy to do, but from which we shy away if the circumstances seem unpropitious.

For instance, as reported in 'Every hero has his weakness', Mum is ever ready to tend to Sonny's needs and wants, unless he happens to be regurgitating his dinner: Vomit is especially repellant to her. Well, it's pretty much like that, we suspect, with the current Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Razak. The prospect of rising to the top job is probably agreeable to him; with a long apprenticeship in politics behind him and his lineage being what it is (he is the son of one former premier and nephew of another), he probably feels as much entitled to it as anyone else.

But oh dear, the rotten timing of it. The ruling coalition he would helm as Prime Minister is teetering on the brink of disaster, with enough lawmaker-members possibly willing to defect to an opposition grouping to throw control of the government to the other side. His own party is split amongst (a) an ever-diminishing rump still loyal to his boss, current prime minister Abdullah Badawi; (b) a faction that wants to boot Abdullah out in December's party elections in favour of a coterie of veterans led by a dissident prince and (c) his own supporters, many of whom want him in charge yesterday.

In short, viewed dispassionately, this is the perfect time to take cover behind your superior, let him stagger under the hits in trying to reform the party (so as to reclaim lost electoral ground) and await calmer seas before reaching for the tiller. Who would want to be known as the captain who was serving when a cruise of over 50 years (for that's how long Malaysia has been in existence, with no changeover in government) is abruptly terminated by passengers who could no longer stomach the crew? The problem, of course, is that more and more members of the crew want the current captain to walk the plank, sharpish: If Najib doesn't step up to take command, however much his instincts may counsel prudence, support might coalesce around someone else altogether.

Right now, then, Najib's doing the best he can: He's hedging like crazy. He's expressing support for a transition plan under which he would contest the party polls with Abdullah, as a team, in exchange for a 2010 handover of power. If enough of his supporters, potential and actual, are willing to hold off for a couple of years, it's the best deal for him: The storm would hopefully have calmed by then, leaving his coalition either consigned to the opposition benches - in which case he can start with a clean slate and new realities - or with a firmer grasp of the situation, meaning he wouldn't have to expend his store of early goodwill squelching crisis after crisis. However, acknowledging that the drumbeat for change might prove be too insistent, he has also indicated that 'it is up to the party grassroots to signal acceptance of the transition plan': In short, if they insist on telling him that he must either be party boss or has-been, he would throw Abdullah over the side and wear the captain's cap.

It's a cautious enough strategy and might work out in his favour. But when Sonny takes it into his head to upchuck his dinner, it's normally sooner rather than later that Mum has to overcome her aversion and approach with cleaning cloth and tissue. Otherwise, a rather unpleasant smell may infect the entire environs, and Sonny's soiled clothes will become much harder to clean.

So it may prove with Najib. Chances are, it's the captain's cabin for him, sharpish.

Anwar Ibrahim is playing Sonny's game

All too many times in the course of these ramblings, we've recounted how our son, on the cusp of turning five months old, toys with us: He'll give every indication that he's ready for his milk, then do a quick-change when Mum hurries over in anticipation. Maybe later, Sonny's expression says as he pushes Mum and her milk-tap aside, at most giving a quick taste before dismissing her.

Well, Anwar Ibrahim, the Malaysian opposition supremo who has been promising to stage a parliamentary coup for months now, is playing Sonny's game. As everybody knows, the man was able to lead a motley alliance of opposition parties to stunning gains in the March elections, when they came within 30 seats of capturing a majority in Parliament. Ever since then, he's vowed to win over enough Members of Parliament (MP) from the current ruling coalition to kick out Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and form the new government.

The whole country, and observers from around the world, have been waiting for him to do just that ever since. A news report will announce that he's reached the magic number of 30 defecting MPs, there'll be a flurry of interest, but then nothing happens and everything settles. A few weeks on comes another declaration of victory, followed by slow deflation of the balloon. A couple of days ago, Anwar missed the deadline he had set himself for seizing power - the anniversary of the founding of modern Malaysia. But he now insists even more stridently that he has the 30 turncoats he needs, and more. He's asking to meet the Prime Minister to arrange a peaceful transfer of power - yet he will not reveal who this mob of defecting MPs are.

With Sonny, at least, you knew that - after spurning us a dozen times - there comes the point when he absolutely has to drink. It's that or starve, little fella, and he knows it, so eventually he'll be gulping away. One can only hope that Anwar realises that he has put himself in the same position. People are able to buy his many excuses for not putting his cards on the table for only so long: That revealing the names of the MPs might bring about instant retribution from the government, that they might be pressured into recanting, and so forth. Politics is a bare-knuckle sport, it must be admitted, so you don't give away any advantages until you have to. Still, at some point, you have to follow through with your promises - especially if you keep repeating them, and insisting that you already have the wherewithal to fulfil them.

Anwar's opponents, and more cynical commentators, will note that Anwar faces a charge of sodomising an aide, and claim that he's just distracting everyone from the coming trial. More plausibly, by presenting a position of apparent strength (even when he doesn't quite have enough MPs yet), he might draw more undecideds to commit to his legal putsch. In both cases, to be honest, he would only be exercising political dexterity. It is really up to the beleaguered ruling coalition to neutralise him by getting the people onto their side, by stabilising the wobbly economy, presenting credible reforms and settling their very public internal conflicts. The problem, of course, is that these folks are scuttling about without a coherent strategy and reaching - worryingly - for old-fashioned tactics like a warning that Anwar is now a "threat to national security". Such ham-handed moves just make it seem that Anwar really is on the cusp of victory.

It's really quite simple. Anwar has to deliver. Milking time is overdue, though there could be sound tactical reasons for why he's taking it one step at a time. Of course, it could all be a fraudster's shtick and he may never follow through.

But remember: If so, he'll eventually be starved of support.

Sudden awakenings

We've blogged before about how it can be hard to rouse Sonny from slumber (click here or here for more). But there's a strange flip side to this: Of late, the young 'un can seem to go from snoozy to sharp in no time at all. It's a pity the president of Georgia never got to meet Sonny, we say... but more on that in a moment.

Neither Mum nor Pa, in case you were wondering, are known for being speedy risers. Mum yawns and stretches and groans, much as Sonny both used to and sometimes still does. Pa could sleep through a complete bulldozing of our flat. But Sonny? On some occasions, we've crept up to our son to find him completely dead to the world, arms stretched out in his patented 'hands-up!' position (see 'An infant's surrender'). Slow breathing, occasional twitching: If he was faking it, he'd have deserved a baby Oscar. But then, in a twinkling, he's completely awake, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed. He's looking around, alert for an attacking soft toy. His limbs are cycling about comfortably. The fella is ready for action.

So how does all this link to the President of Georgia, you ask? Well, as you know, Mikheil Saakashvili recently sent his soldiers into a part of his country - South Ossetia - that doesn't really want to be part of Georgia any more. By all accounts, he was hoping to quickly re-establish control. Only Russia, which has been a protector of the South Ossetians, didn't much like the plan, so it unleashed its military and kicked the Georgian forces out in a heartbeat, before threatening briefly to widen the conflict. All in all, it's been quite humiliating for Mr Saakashvili. What was he thinking, to spite the Russians this way?

Well, we're figuring that Moscow has been behaving like Sonny sometimes does: Being a real sluggard at responding, and being so slow to awaken that Mr Saakashvili was hoping to have completed his reconquest before Russia could shake the sleep from its geopolitical eyes. After all, it hasn't done much but growl as the Americans have expanded their military alliance, Nato, to its very doorstep and absorbed countries once considered Moscow's satellites into an anti-missile shield that the Russians find highly threatening. The bear has remained half in slumber.

Only the bear is like Sonny, of course: At times, unpredictably, it comes alive with instant ferocity. And so it was: Russian soldiers, and tanks, and attack aircraft and ships surged out more swiftly than Sonny's mood can change around mealtime - and it was curtains for Mr Saakashvili's clever plan. Only it wasn't all that clever, wasn't it? Just because Russia has been a slow mover at times didn't mean it wasn't going always going to be such a sloth, especially in an area within easy reach of its forces, with little chance of outside intervention and every opportunity to send a firm signal to the world.

Really, Mr Saakashvili should have been able to work that out in his sleep.

Malaysia and Singapore should be one country

The Chinese concept of yin and yang celebrates the harmony of opposites.

Well, as Sonny grows up, one of our battier hopes is for him to know a world in which Malaysia and Singapore are co-joined in a form approaching political unity. It's a cause with few overt supporters in either country - yet we think a trial balloon ought to be urgently floated.

For one thing, time is working against us. It's hard to imagine Canada and the United States linking up again, whatever their cultural affinities, simply because too much water has passed under the bridge. A few hundred years of divergent social and economic paths, unyoked by a shared political harness, has led to a polarisation of attitudes; each views the other, not always good-naturedly, as alien.

In Malaysia and Singapore, that process is well underway, but it has only been 43 years since political separation, so impregnable psychic barriers have yet to solidify. Yet the differences on display might already seem even more stark than with our North American example. Each country is the mirror image of the other, in terms of the preponderance of one ethnic group vis-a-vis another. Worse, the respective visions illuminating their paths to progress are wildly at odds: One celebrates the importance of merit and ability, the other harks back to historical injustices in enshrining the rights and privileges of one community.

However, there is a remarkable confluence of broad trends evident at the moment, that the more far-seeing leaders from both sides might seize upon as a spur to act. In Malaysia, there is a growing willingness to revise the race-based architecture that has defined the political discourse for decades, in favour of race-blind meritocracy and needs-based assistance. Singapore is reaching the limits of what it can achieve as a tiny spit of land, however competent its leadership and even though incremental improvements may still be possible. There is also a greater desire among its people for a less claustrophobic civic environment. In each case, the arrows are pointing to the neighbour as a source of inspiration, example and simple living space.

Yin and yang, then. If the strengths of the two nations could be fused, the resultant entity would be a far more formidable competitor in the global arena, and - perhaps more importantly - a richer social tapestry for each citizen to weave in his individual contribution. The excessive tendencies of each would be restrained by the other, whether this be a certain coldness masquerading as efficiency or a chaotic joyousness without sufficient direction.

The advice of the cautious would be to proceed very carefully, to first establish greater trust between the elites, then increase co-operation, and so forth. But if Sonny is to hope to ever live in our implausible united country, delay should not be brooked. In the first place, co-operation between the two nations is already far more extensive than newspaper headlines and occasional political eruptions would suggest. More fundamentally, however, this confluence of trends and opportunities will not last forever. If Malaysia stumbles its way towards a new political structure without stitching in a Singaporean contribution, its revised identity will again solidify and the chance would be lost. The same applies if Singapore completes a measure of social evolution and economic transformation in isolation, without bonds being forged with its neighbour as it does so. Make no mistake, changes in both countries are going to happen anyway: It is the chance to use the opportunity to draw the two closer that will evaporate if not seized. The results, if so, would be considerably less satisfactory than if yin-yang unity had been achieved.

Admittedly, with the ruling coalition in Malaysia facing a weakened grip on power, it will require remarkable courage and will to take up the challenge of seeking closer unity with Singapore. There will be those who see any such move as an opening to champion narrow partisan positions. Singapore, too, has made much of its prickly independence, and will have to educate its people quickly on the advantages of seeking exponentially closer ties with Malaysia. One resource to draw on is the many people in both countries who remember the days when the two countries were one. Properly mobilised, they can be an emotional beachhead on which to launch the campaign to convince the young. But it is a beachhead, also, that will be weakened and eroded with the years. In any event, there is no guarantee of success - but to delay is to guarantee failure.

Alas, truth no longer matters in Anwar case

It doesn't require the skills of a master political scientist to predict how the Anwar Ibrahim scandal is going to develop. For those who've been living in remote caves, that's the Malaysian opposition supremo and ex-deputy premier who's been arrested (and released on bail) in connection with a sodomy investigation, and who alleges that the whole business is a conspiracy to short-circuit his drive to power.

Chances are, lurid details will surface. We are going out on a limb and predicting that there might even be video footage of some sort - grainy and indistinct, to be sure - along with DNA evidence and depositions by supposed witnesses. Anwar's ex-aide, 23-year-old Saiful Bukhari Azlan, claims that he was sexually assaulted by his 60-year-old boss in a luxury condominium. On the one hand, we're happy that our Sonny is far too young to get caught up in the descent to indecency that is imminent. On the other hand, he's missing out on one heck of a comedy.

Comedy, you say? Isn't all this deadly serious - since Anwar is heading up a clutch of parties that did so well in recent elections, the defection of a few parliamentarians might lead to a changeover in top management? Well, it's just that - whatever happens next - most people's view of what actually transpired in that condominium (if anything did) isn't going to change.

The problem, of course, is that we've been through all this before. A decade ago, Anwar was put on trial for sodomy and - to cut a very long story short -ultimately freed. Anyway, there was testimony then too by alleged victims and confessions later recanted, yuckily-stained mattresses and supposed assignations in buildings that mysteriously weren't even up yet. The upshot of all this is that a large segment of the Malaysan population has a built-up belief that tarring Anwar with sodomy is all part of a cutthroat political game.

And now that it's happening again? Well, so what if DNA evidence comes out, or X-rated footage? Whatever the details, it can all be said to be a set-up. Faked or planted or tweaked or re-enacted. We all know that digital magic is possible. It has already emerged that Anwar's accuser met up with the Deputy Premier before the whole farce began. It's all about appearances, folks. Whether high-level conspiracy is actually going on is totally immaterial. The possibility has been burned so deeply into the Malaysian (and international) psyche that the credibility of any case against Anwar will never match up.

What's to do, then? Well, with Sonny blisfully unaware, we are going to enjoy the whole drama. A lot of honest and hardworking police officers are going to be involved in the case. Plenty of upright and honest citizens from all political persuasions will marshal their arguments (along with, no doubt, more dubious characters peddling chicanery of some sort or another). We'll laugh and gasp and express shock. Perhaps, ultimately, Anwar will be packed off to jail. Or maybe he'll magick up a victory and finally enter Malaysia's administrative capital of Putrajaya in triumph.

Whichever is the scenario that finally comes true, the truth or otherwise of the sodomy claims will not make a jot of difference.